UK HDV supply chain opportunities to 2035

Executive Summary:

The “UK HDV supply chain opportunities to 2035” Insight report details how decarbonisation and a drive towards net zero in the Heavy Duty Vehicle (HDV) sector could help to realise an estimated £2.4 billion growth opportunity for the UK.

The Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV) sector, which includes Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV) and buses, contributes to 21% of overall greenhouse emissions in the UK for transport, with the HGV sector taking 19% of the share.

Furthermore, in 2021, UK Government announced an end of sale date for new, non-zero-emission HGVs weighing less than or equal to 26 tonnes from 2035, and from 2040, all new HGVs must be fully zero-emission at the exhaust.

A UK production forecast by the APC projects 35,000 HGVs and buses by 2035, with at least 75% from zero-emission vehicles at the tailpipe.​

This presents a growth opportunity for the UK, in both manufacture of vehicles and within the supply chain, to innovate and industrialise zero-emission technologies. There is a potential £1.39 billion UK HDV production-led opportunity and a £967 million UK Tier 1 production-led export potential. There are 10 distinct areas identified that could see a boost, including fuel cell systems, batteries, electric drive units (EDUs), hydrogen tanks, and DC-DC converters, all of which is further detailed in this report.